The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on24, Aug, 2009, in the first half of this year, China and Germany of dollars in export value by almost equal, slightly ahead of China. This is another climbed more than in Germany after this year China's GDP exceeded than Germany in beginning of this year,
According to WTO terms, in the first half China's exports of goods worth 521.7 billion U.S. dollars, Germany, compared with 521.6 billion U.S. dollars.
In fact, the export volume was matched between the two countries. According to Chinese customs statistics caliber show that in the first half China's exports totaled 521.5 billion U.S. dollars, slightly less than the WTO statistics.
Therefore, although the statistical sense of transcendence, but the symbolism is also very clear that the financial crisis, China's economy in a global recession remained stable, with a time to become bright spots.
WTO Chief Economist Patrick Low to comment that the "bite looks very tight race." In his view, depends not only on the results of the second half of volume of exports, may be a greater chance of the exchange rate will ultimately decide who the annual export volume of the first 1.
Low said that, according to the present situation, it is difficult to judge this year or next year, which country will win.
Since 2003, Germany has been the world's largest commodity exporters. Some analysts had expected, China's total export value may exceed that of Germany in 2009.
At the same time shrinking the same time, a rebound
Last year's financial crisis, the overall contraction of world trade, China's export in the first half year the average monthly decline in more than 20%, and 9 consecutive monthly decline. Domestic macroeconomic projections of public opinion may not have thought of China's export volume also become the world's first.
This is due to German exports suffered a similar decline in the same range. All along, Germany, with its strong export orders, the economy has been in the EU's "dominate" and its GDP, foreign trade accounted for 47%. Compared to other European countries, Germany's economic dependence on exports is very obvious, is a typical export-oriented economic growth.
Germany, the composition of exports, the exports are mainly concentrated in the automotive, machinery and chemical industries, share and growth rate is far greater than services, consumer goods, this increased the volatility of the German economy. When the major trading partners, financial problems, the German economy as soon fluctuate.
However, since the beginning of the second quarter, exports between China and Germany the same time there signs of recovery.
Germany is the euro-zone economy the fastest warming in the world. In the August 14 published data show that Germany and France take the lead in turn to the economic growth rate in the second quarter GDP growth of 0.3% in quarter, exceeding expectations. It was led by France and Germany, and data showed the euro zone economy may be out of a recession in the third quarter. Because of this, economists immediately raised their GDP growth forecasts for the euro zone this year and next.
According to the German Federal Bureau of Statistics recently released data in June, following Germany's industrial orders increased by 4.4% last month, again after an increase of 4.5%. Among them, from domestic orders increased by only 0.2%, while orders from abroad increased by a robust 8.3%.
According to the July data, China's foreign trade situation has also warmed up the second half of the coastal export enterprise orders increased in July to return to a surplus of 100 billion mark also. Benefit from the timely adjustment of export tax rebate, China's processing trade in the light industrial products to keep the global market share. YAO Jian, spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce recently in a positive forecast for the second half of exports that may be picked up in the fourth quarter year on year.
Into the determinants of the exchange rate or
If the Chinese and German exports are showing signs of recovery, changes in exchange rates may be the end of the final decision who to obtain export champion.
Some analysts believe that the euro's recent strength may be, which have more tests for German exports.
As for China, due to last year's financial crisis, the dollar settled currency fluctuations, foreign exchange settlement risk of foreign trade enterprises in China increased the export quota, and also affect corporate profits. Xu, deputy director of Finance Department of Commerce, plus love the day before yesterday the Chinese Government Power Grid User questions had revealed that the first half of the average export profitability of Chinese enterprises is only 1.5%.
Xu plus love that, according to the Ministry of Commerce of nearly 2,000 key enterprises in the survey, the first half of this year, corporate average export profit margin of just 1.5%, down 6.2%. This gives the overall export enterprises make the test run steadily.
Policy Research Office of the Ministry of Commerce, an official told CBN that the exchange rate shock is the biggest impact of China's exports. Reflected from the local and business situation, shrinking foreign demand is the main reason, but the U.S. dollar and other international trade in the major settlement currency fluctuations, but also an important factor should not be overlooked. China's export industry, if you can not correct choice of billing currency, a huge exchange losses will affect the export interests.
