Hainan's real estate people are now very worried about this: Hainan Island, the concept of international tourism, after throwing people across the country flocked, some developers so that everyone is under the deposit is not opened, property prices rose one day, who do not know how much will be risen to money. 70,000 yuan / square meters of housing will not let the high price of investors discouraged.
Recently, Huatai Securities analyst fish joint property of Hainan Jinhua did a thorough investigation found that grass-roots, the basic volume of each of the properties for sale off-island customers have accounted for more than 80%, and basically less than 30% occupancy rate . While those from outside the island's demand, the field moved into the island residents to do business investment demand, excess liquidity from outside the island capital investment needs, and to follow the field to enter the island developer-led brands to enter the associated demand accounted for mainstream buyers.
Offshore islands were invaded
Hainan Island building where the number of people? Who also said that clear, but working in Guangzhou and 80 after Chen also "Good Times" of that faraway place, once two houses on the next set.
The outer islands people are invaded. --- From the State Council document No. 44, "the State Council on promoting international tourism in Hainan Island, construction and development of a number of opinions" of the introduction of just the past month, Hainan began sounding the alarm.
February 2, Hainan Land Office issued the implementation of environmental resources, land supply, the "two pause" policy --- January 16 this year, played March 31 to suspend the province's commercial exploitation of the land transfer, suspend the approval of new real estate development projects. March 31 After that, I do not know what kind of situation.
Research first stop, the fish Jinhuagong selected Haikou. From Haikou City, the monthly turnover for 2008-2009 data, Haikou upstream market is still in a relatively stable stage of development, the year 2009, an area of 2.6 million square meters of residential turnover, turnover of 13.2 billion annual average price of 4964 yuan / m 2 over the previous year an increase of 43%, 71% and 17% respectively. Contrast to other cities in 2009 the real estate transaction situation, Haikou, the situation has not presented a unique, basic agreement with the national real estate trend (Figure 1).
But the real push in Haikou, Hainan and even the whole real estate market out of the national real estate market trends independent of the trigger factor is that the Hainan provincial government to promote "international tourist island of planning" and the subsequent suspension of the land development approval from the decision. In a government-led drama in the real estate market operators, all real estate price boom crashed, or large an alarming rate.
International travel within the island of planning in January to stimulate the housing prices doubled (Figure 2). From the real estate research in Haikou City, the Government planning to promote international tourism to the island to bring the housing market strong stimulus impressive.
Research real estate prices in the planning after the introduction of an average rise of 73%, there are three properties for sale or have reached 100 percent, or sea-blue Fuyuan Luneng smallest projects up to 33%, and recently a group of more than 100 sets of villas Project Open Day Within all sold out.
Real estate research now is basically no room to sell the state, the project is less than 10 sets of the remaining basic ploidy, the market supply of good short-term depletion of superposition of the policy makes the buyers needs are infinite amplification, house prices are high operating situation is obviously immeasurable.
70% vacancy
Hainan clients in transactions outside the market has always been the main (Figure 3,4), in the "international tourist island of planning" after the introduction of this phenomenon has become more apparent. According to research, the basic properties for sale off-island customers each accounted for 80% of the volume are all over and basically after the handover of each real estate occupancy rate of less than 30%.
Demand from outside the island mainly from the northeast, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and the Pearl River Delta region, respectively, the field moved into the island on behalf of the residents to do business investment demand, investment demand, off-island residents, as well as to follow the foreign brands to enter into the island developer-led purchase of the associated demand.
Fish Jinhua believes that such a special market in Hainan, the above represents the three kinds of basic needs to support a major force in real estate prices, while behind the support of these requirements is the country's currency from the excess liquidity.
"Prudent look at the sea the property market." Fish Jinhua said that the current market, the market will continue inferred Haikou prices continue upward to judge mainly from two: one is due to the Government to suspend the land transfer, leading to subsequent shortage of supply, the shortage of supply will be formed ; second lies in the previous stage of the formation of the wealth effect of soaring house prices, has led to the confidence index of home buyers in the upstream channel, inertia will keep rising for some time. For the above judgments, fish Jinhuagong that, although the representative of the current market conditions, it is still worthy of the continuing rise in the market with caution reason.
Its said that Haikou markets experienced in 1993 due to the housing bubble, although after several years of recovery, the failure to complete a project formed the bubble is gradually digested, but in the land market, the bubble during the build-up in the hands of the local small and medium developers of the land the number of the large number of these private land can not be fair to become the second-hand stock of Government's tentative plan for land supply uncertainties, it is possible to break the market supply for the future market consensus expectations.
Irrational Exuberance
Non-rational state of investor confidence, such as the castles in the air. Fish Jinhuagong that, in the Government's new plan to stimulate the formation of the current round of increases under the existence of a large non-rational factors, unlike in Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai and other cities home buyers in the real estate investment many times come to understand and parity, in the Haikou investment by foreign clients because of the time and energy constraints, in the face of millions or even tens of millions of investment in almost no time to think to make the decision.
This non-rational investor confidence continued to maintain up time hard to grasp at the same time, due to the secondary trading market in Haikou markets are still imperfect, market risk can not be by strict trading system and norms to avoid, once the fluctuations in investor confidence, the secondary trading market disorder and inefficiencies are likely to accelerate the collapse of confidence in the market to form a great pressure on home prices.
From the stock room of the district of Haikou not look at the structural balance is obvious, the old revolutionary base areas in the non-planning emphasis Longhua District, in November 2009 the stock of housing is still an area of up to 2.1 million square meters, Meilan, King Shan areas also have their own close 1 million square meters of the stock room undigested, only the planning of new districts to Xiuying area faster. Bubble left behind by the failure to complete a project is still a large number of transactions is not retained in Haikou exuberant old town, also shows that the low participation of investors in the field of investment areas, the existing stock of housing supply is still far higher than the overall demand for local residents .
On the one hand fanatical pursuit of foreign investors from hot new planning projects resulting in short supply, while the other hand belong to the local residents there is a big market is in excess supply, Haikou market is currently showing an unhealthy imbalance between the two states, let us reason to be This does not completely resolve the legacy of the last real estate bubble of the market remained cautious.
House prices rose in place once
According to the Wenchang, Boao, Sanya and other places of research, the three places exist in the land monopoly and the development of regional enterprises, these developers are in an early stage through its participation in local land development and local government to establish a good relationship, after several years of enclosure movement, slowly becoming a local "landlord", the hands-owned land reserves are in 1000, more than mu. As the development of capacity in the region, a larger proportion of such firms tend to Area new home pricing has some leadership, a direct impact on the regional housing price trends.
From the field research situation, the leading developer of current projects within each region there is still 40% -60% of the stock of undeveloped. A few from the current focus on real estate representative to infer, although the pre-conditions to achieve the housing in the January "international tourist island" plan is basically to digest after the introduction of exhausted, however, the project is still a considerable amount of the stock of undeveloped land The government temporarily halted approval of transfer of land to the overall market supply in 2010 caused by the pressure of the current situation is still limited.
"International tourist island planning" The introduction of so that the whole of Hainan general rise in market prices close to 100%, from Wenchang, Boao and Sanya local real estate research point of view, broadly in line with this law. Fish Jinhuagong that, considering the current infrastructure in Hainan, business matching, personnel quality and government efficiency status, housing prices have been ahead, the current level will be the future of the city's comprehensive one-off revaluation is expected to put in place, the future of urban development is a complementary long, gradually match the current housing prices first trot process. From Beijing, Shenzhen and other places, the experience of urban development, infrastructure construction of the completion of house prices will not bring another explosive growth opportunities, most of the real estate prices in the infrastructure planning announced the next stage of digestion had been rapidly expected.
Market high holding stability
The research in the three places in Wenchang, Boao main customers of the two places in Sichuan, Chongqing-based. The Sanya's main customer base is more in line with the sea, mainly the northeast, Jiangsu and Zhejiang as well as the Pearl River Delta composition. From the field visits of the real estate point of view, on-site customers to speak mostly in northern accent, the Northeast climate and sea resources, customer needs to demand a high degree and the formation of comparisons in the local mental, to some extent resulted in luxury consumption of Hainan property mentality.
It is noteworthy that, in this three research to purchase real estate have indicated a high proportion of mortgage customers, the basic one-time payment, even if the mortgage, the percentage of more than 50% down payment, some real estate, such as Clarke Quay, and in the Nansen Gulf expressly accept the mortgage purchase, requiring customers to a one-time payment, to distinguish the real purchasing power customers.
Jinhua fish that the current shape in the three places on the property market, consumption of luxury-oriented mentality, as well as the low participation of banks, to a certain extent, the formation of the housing market stabilizer will maintain the current high property prices continued volatility on the .
"The market is high holding stability." Fish Jinhuagong integrated all current research as well as the above analysis that the supply in the market remained stable, the policy will not be apparent tendency to nurture, and the city can not form a complete set of hardware and software prices surge once again to open up paths circumstances, the Hainan property market will remain high holding stability and short-term trend.
